First Flakes of the Season?

11/22/2015 8:49 AM EST

Maybe…

Tonight into tomorrow morning a low will be skirting eastern Massachusetts. The Cape will see a good amount of rain from this, likely greater than an inch. For us, the possibility for the first flakes of the season exists on the back end of the system as it passes by. Around midnight Monday morning 850 mb temperatures will drop to just below freezing. Though the surface temp will be too warm for any accumulation, there does appear to be to be precip falling at the time as the cold front sweeps through the region. The question remains; how quickly will the front will move in? Will it be quick enough to meet the precipitation in time? The NAM is a little more aggressive at this time and would favor a little snow. GFS, not so much. I’ll say that we have a 20% chance of seeing our first snowflakes tonight. If we don’t, there are other opportunities on the horizon.

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2014-2015: the snowiest winter on record!

This just in from the National Weather Service: As of 7:00 PM on March 15th, 2015, Boston has broken a new record for seasonal snowfall. The winter of 2014-2015 was, in fact, the snowiest winter on record since 1872 when records began. This comes with many other snowfall records this winter including the shattering of the monthly snowfall record this February with 64.9 inches.

A brief, but intense, band of snow thrown on shore by a leaving coastal storm managed to drop roughly 3 inches in four hours. It was easily enough for Boston to surpass the 95-96 record of 107.6 inches. As of 7:00, Logan Airport reported a season total of 108.6 inches for 2014-2015.

Snow, Snow, and more Snow

Whether it is good or bad news to you, winter will be continuing its tireless grasp on New England for at least the next two weeks. We begun this year with very little snowfall; even by mid January, we had not seen a major snowstorm. Then, the train of storms and cold fired up, with the blizzard of 2015. It blanketed New England dropping as much as 36 inches and created a logistical nightmare for schools, transportation, and cities. What do you do with 36 inches of snow? Old man winter, would not relent; record cold and more snow was soon to come. Less than a week after the Blizzard, another major storm cropped up out of an, usually harmless, clipper system. Again, the conditions were perfect for another 12+ inches to fall on the region adding on top of the snow that hadn’t melted. Over the last two weeks we have had 4 days which inched above the freezing point, but combined with a few mini snow events, the net loss of snow cover was basically zero. Boston, is facing one of the greatest challenges of removing the snow from its many narrow streets. The city has already been forced to bring in snow-melting machines to combat the growing piles.

Here we go again. It’s February 9, 2015. Businesses  have been asked by the Governor to allow employees to work from home, schools have been closed, and plows are at the ready again for the next storm. As of writing this, snow continues to fall on top of the estimated 8 or so inches of fresh powder already on the ground. It is beautiful no doubt and amazing to think that something as simple as frozen water could create such a challenge for our winter ready state. Next week, I am seeing on the models, more snow, some of which will likely be major. We can start with this Thursday when a clipper will transition into a bombing coastal low. There are, of course, questions as to how close it will come to New England and how much snow it will bring. However, considering the pattern that we have been in, its time to be prepared. Looking on the long range forecast the train appears to continue, broken up by record cold. From a meteorological standpoint, this is an astounding winter for New England, one that will stand in many people’s memories.

Blizzard imminent, heed warnings

Tonight and tomorrow will bring some of the most intense winter weather we have seen in a decade. Whiteout conditions, winds gusting near hurricane force, severe coastal flooding, and record breaking snow totals will be seen. Be prepared for long duration power outages. Roads will be impassable and completely unsafe for travel beyond midnight tonight. Governor Baker has officially instated a travel ban for tonight into Tuesday. This one is for the record books so be sure not to take it lightly.

Major winter storm possible Monday Night-Tuesday

Alright, there is a lot of uncertainty here, especially now over 3 days ahead of the storm. For the last few days the GFS has been indicating a possible winter storm around the Monday, Tuesday timeframe of next week. There has been little said about it until now because it was the only model indicating a threat. This morning, the ECMWF came into line with the GFS showing a similar, quite powerful storm system off our coast crossing very near the 40-70 benchmark (for those unfamiliar with the benchmark, it is a coordinate location SE of Nantucket where, historically, southern New England’s biggest storms have run through). As it looks now, assuming nothing changes (which it will), we could see a significant impact from this one. There is potential for Blizzard conditions and very heavy snow fall early to mid next week. Unlike our Saturday rain/snow event, high pressure in Quebec will likely be injecting plenty of cold air and slowing the storm’s pace which would indicate significant snow and wind impact. Keep in mind, that out 3 days, any shift in the track or intensity can completely change the impact. Only a few models runs have shown this storm system in its impressive form, so we will have to wait and see if they hold out through Sunday and Monday.

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